The HGS Advisory Committee is charged with considering the long-range future of the HGS. Last year the Advisory Committee prepared a review of membership trends and evaluated the future of the organization and its members. Their report, prepared last spring (1999) by Committee Chairman Dave Fontaine with committee members Paul Britt, Dan Smith, and Ann Martin, is presented here, followed by an update by Dave Fontaine.
Introduction
In 1992, an ad hoc committee of the Houston Geological Society (HGS) developed a Long Range Advisory Report directed towards a critical review of key organization functions and their long-term relevance to the future of the Society. In late 1998, the present members of the HGS Advisory Committee elected to review the original report and briefly update those aspects that may have change significantly since 1992. Unfortunately, the original report is no longer available in its entirety so, by necessity, the Committee truncated the coverage of its companion review. Those missing sections of the original report were replaced with recent trend information pertaining to the geological profession, HGS membership, and suggestions about key elements driving HGS programs in the future. As background, the Committee drew upon information contained in the report of the AAPG 21st Century Review Committee. HGS membership, and its implication for the future of the Society, became the central focus of the Advisory Committee's review. The Committee also touched upon career management and continuing education.
Membership Trends 1992—1999
HGS membership has remained more or less stable since 1992, despite fluctuating employment conditions within the profession. The original report sought to assess membership as a function of employment. The report concluded that, while membership is affected by employment levels, HGS membership fluctuations tended to be dampened by an influx of new members, many of whom arrived in Houston as a result of the closure of regional petroleum company offices in provinces outside of the Upper Gulf Coast. An additional factor supporting membership levels is the belief that the benefits of belonging to the HGS tended to offset uncertain employment conditions. The HGS provides a very low cost venue whereby geologists can maintain contact within the profession, can enhance training through continuing education, and can stay alert to cutting-edge topics covering energy, the environment, and technology. The following graphs illustrate HGS membership trends from 1992—1999.
The Committee considered two questions stemming from the membership review.
- Will these membership trends continue into the foreseeable future?
- Are there any "hidden" factors that could negatively impact future membership levels?
Student membership in the HGS is, and apparently has traditionally been, relatively low, about five people out of roughly 4500 members. Student membership in the AAPG has risen from about 400 in 1992, to about 1750 in 1998; however, this higher level is nearly 1000 less than the high of 1984. The Committee has no clear understanding as to the meaning of these changes. No strong positives are indicated for the HGS.
A second factor that could impact membership or, perhaps more accurately, membership participation in HGS activities, is the age distribution of members within the Society and the profession as a whole. The following graph shows the age distribution of HGS members.
The age distribution indicates that nearly 70% of members are 40 or older, with the largest subgroup, 36% of HGS members, being 40 to 50 years of age (the Baby-Boomers, b. 1946-64).
The next largest subgroup is those members in their 30s, comprising about 20% of members (Generation X, b. 1961-1972). Members in their 20's comprise only about 5% of the HGS (Millennialists). What do these age distributions portend for the immediate and longer-term future of the HGS?
The most obvious projection is that membership is headed for a decline as the older members give way to fewer and fewer younger members. This will not have an immediate impact, though without a steep reversal in the declining number of entrants into the profession and the HGS, the reality of a smaller organization seems inevitable. The Committee pegs the first significant membership drop concurrent with the first Boomers reaching their early 60s, about 2010. By 2020, two-thirds of the Boomer members will be 65–75. The current membership of this age group is only about 6% of total membership. If the Boomers that today comprise 36% of current membership ultimately comprise only 6% of membership in 2020, total membership will have declined by about 1350 people. Attrition in other groups may exacerbate the decline.
Such a simple conclusion belies other influencing factors, such as members maintaining their membership beyond their working years or a significant business cycle change that results in new entrants into the profession. Numbers alone do not tell the whole story. There are other implications in these demographics — moods, attitudes, and undercurrents that are not easily illustrated on a clean graph. These factors can, and will, influence the future of the HGS.
HGS Members by Generation — Boomers
Ripped by the 1960s, Boomers are a bridge generation rooted in part to the ethos of the 1950s. They are generally aware of, though not strict adherents to, earlier values such as loyalty given - loyalty received, the traditional family, and the relationships of corporate life. The latter traditionally were based upon fraternities of colleagues forged from real socialization-slow and always building from years of close work with a stable group of peers. Organizational pull and support were based upon a shared sense of ideals and mutual obligations. Forward progress moved generally at a rate concurrent with life stage and somewhat predictable.
For 30 years, this stability has been under assault, and the intensity of the attack is accelerating. The culprit is time compression and an ever-increasing rate of change in the physical world and the world of work. Speed, efficiency, innovation, technology, and cost-cutting are the order of the day—doubly so in the commodity world of the energy business. Loyalty is out and experience is discounted—who needs them in a world changing so fast that "what was" is almost instantly "no longer"? The traits that are most commonly desired today are flexibility, adaptability to change, and independent problem solving with a fast and highly profitable result.
Boomers are under heavy pressures to share children-rearing responsibilities with a working spouse, to maintain hefty mortgages, and to prepare for looming college expenses as their children grow up. At the very moment that traditionally they would be secure and well positioned in their careers to face these responsibilities, they are under siege to spend less time with family. The mantra is to work more—a lot more—work quicker, and work smarter. In spite of rising to the tough challenge, in a 1998 survey reported in Fortune magazine, 773 CEOs seemed to question the suitability of Boomers in today's business world. They stated that they felt peoples' productivity peaked at an average age of 43. That's typically a long way off from the downside of life's hump.
How the HGS meets the needs of this group is