Opinion Column
Some of you may be surprised to see a photo of a waterfall in Iceland on the cover of the HGS Bulletin. Last month I put an iceberg on the cover. My purpose was and is twofold. One I like these pictures and the HGS is a geological society that should cover many aspects of the science. My second purpose, since this societies membership is overwhelmingly made up of people who work directly or indirectly in the hydrocarbon business is to talk about energy.
At our September dinner meeting, (the first in-person meeting in two years) Art Berman gave an interesting and, in my opinion, somewhat controversial talk about the future of energy and its effect on the world economy. (There is a brief report on his talk later in the Bulletin by Linda Sternbach.) Our world runs on energy and the availability of energy at a reasonable cost has directed the world’s economies and to a great sense civilization. I think Iceland provides an interesting side note to the conversation.
According to the official Iceland Ministry of Environment: “About 85% of the total primary energy supply in Iceland is derived from domestically produced renewable energy sources. This is the highest share of renewable energy in any national total energy budget. In 2016 geothermal energy provided about 65% of primary energy, the share of hydropower was 20%, and the share of fossil fuels (mainly oil products for the transport sector) was 15%”. The transportation sector is cars and trucks but more importantly the fishing fleet.
Operating an aluminum smelter in Iceland is over one-third cheaper than the global average, which is roughly US$10/MWh above the average price paid by smelters on the island. The industry has taken full advantage of this fact, as the three aluminum smelters on the island consume over seventy percent of the electricity produced each year.
This is great for Iceland but not helpful for the rest of us. Few of us have rivers like the one pictured on the cover to provide cheap hydroelectric power. Even less of us have mantle plumes below us to provide the heat source for geothermal energy. So, most of us have transitioned from sources like wood, peat and whale oil to coal, oil and natural gas. While not ‘clean’ they are cleaner than the first three for the amount of energy provided and also provide the feed stock for many of the luxuries and necessities we have today.
A couple of sidelights. When the first people started to permanently inhabit Iceland approximately 1,000 years ago most of the non-glaciated terrain was covered by forest. Over the centuries much of this forest disappeared used mainly for heating homes and cooking. Now there is very little forest left despite a strong campaign to replace the trees. These trees are so slow growing and stunted that the common joke in Iceland is: if you find yourself lost in a forest in Iceland what do you do? The answer is stand up.
If you travel to Iceland, you will see very few electric cars or trucks. The electricity is very cheap but few can afford the cars. As for boats, the batteries would cost more than the boat and probably sink the smaller ones.
We live in a world where very few understand energy. True story. On a cruise ship recently, a passenger asked a member of the crew where they get the electricity to power all the lights? The straight-faced answer was “we have a very long extension cord”. He was not about to get into the volume of bunker fuel they consume. Similarly, a driver of a Tesla was asked where the electricity comes from to power his car and he answered “from the wall”. He lived in a state where virtually all the electricity is generated with coal. But he thinks by driving an electric car he is saving the environment and combatting climate change.
But who can blame them for their ignorance. Our own government wants to kill our industry and blames Big Oil for all of the climate problems from sea level rising to hurricanes to droughts. Even the API sponsors ads that talk about doing their part to “combat climate change”. If we lost the API we are in trouble. I hope they actually know better but should someone remind them that while we humans may have a small, hopefully temporary, effect on climate, the real causes are out of our control.
2.8 MMYBP Central America rose out of the sea. As a result of this event, the intra-ocean warm water circulation between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans was cut off. This just happens to correspond to the onset of the last ice age in the northern hemisphere. The earth has gone through many warming and cooling cycles since then. The latest warming cycle started about 24,000 years ago with many cooling and warming cycles along the way. Is our use of “fossil fuels” having an effect? Yes. Is it outside the “normal” range of the past? No. Do we know enough to confidently predict the long term results of our influence? I don’t think so. It’s good to have a few alarmists out there to cause us to better protect our planet. But we also need to balance the good fossil fuels do for us with the possible harm.
Ken Thies, HGS Editor 2022-2023
kenthies.kt@gmail.com