HGS General Lunch- Appraising & Developing Your Unconventionals: How to Avoid Squandering Billions of Dollars Next Time

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Wednesday, May 23, 2018
The Petroleum Club of Houston
1201 Louisiana Street, Houston, TX
- The top floor of Total Building
- Access to the Downtown tunnel system
Social 11:15 AM, Luncheon 11:30 AM
Cost: $35 pre-registered members; $40 for non-members/ALL walk-ups;
$35 for Emeritus/Life/Honorary; $15 for HGS student members if pre-registered and pre-paid.

To guarantee a seat, you must pre-register on the HGS website and pre-pay with a credit card.  You may walk up and pay at the door if extra seats are available.  Please cancel by phone or email within 24 hours before the event for a refund.  Online & pre-registration closes Tuesday, May 22 at 5:00 AM

Speaker: Gary Citron
Company: Rose and Associates

Appraising & Developing Your Unconventionals:  How to Avoid Squandering Billions of Dollars Next Time

Over the past three years, more than 100 oil and gas companies in North America with almost $80B in debt have filed for bankruptcy.  While these companies would like you to believe they were all victims of low commodity prices, many failed because of the way they approached appraising and developing opportunities. Two of the most common mistakes have been focusing on production attainment instead of value creation, and incorrectly thinking that enough was understood about a given reservoir to push ahead with development.

To mitigate these errors unconventional reservoirs must be evaluated in a series of stages. In each stage we need to; (1) identify the key uncertainties and risks, (2) collect the data needed to quantify these, and (3) generate a probabilistic assessment of potential outcomes and their associated values. A key aspect in this evaluation is not only using rock and fluid data to identify the area with the greatest potential, but drilling enough wells to understand the production variance (irreducible uncertainty) and whether the average well will be economic. This includes quantifying the range of the average well and the confidence of achieving some minimum rate.

This process requires discipline, including maintaining consistent drilling and completion practices so variations in reservoir quality can be understood. To help ensure this process is followed it is important to implement an assurance process consisting of; 1) guidelines and workflows, 2) peer reviews and assists, and 3) periodic performance lookbacks. The time to do this is NOW, before prices rise again and we revert to our destructive habits.


During his twenty-year career at Amoco (in the 1980s and 1990s), Gary served as a geoscientist, exploration supervisor and asset manager, as well as an internal consultant to executives and team leaders. While on Amoco’s Prospect Quality Team, Dr. Citron actively reviewed prospects prior to and after drilling, and mentored younger geoscientists on prospect measurement. In 1999 Dr. Citron joined Pete Rose’s consulting firm.  He became Pete’s first Partner in Rose & Associates in 2001 and held the role of Managing Partner from 2003 to 2014, leading Rose & Associates to multiple consecutive years of profitable growth.

In addition to his teaching and consulting obligations associated with conventional and unconventional resource opportunities, he coordinates a yearly gathering of risk team coordinators to share and compare best practices. In 2001, he received the best paper award from the AAPG’s Division of Professional Affairs, and again in 2007 he was honored for delivering a ‘Top Ten Oral Presentation’ at the AAPG annual convention.  Dr. Citron regularly donates his time to the AAPG’s education curricula, teaching courses on prospect and play assessment. He has served in the AAPG House of Delegates and as an Associate Editor for the SPE’s Economics and Management journal. He has authored or co-authored more than a dozen publications, and has been an honored speaker for the SIPES, Geological Society of London, AAPG, SPE, and SEG.

PhD Cornell University - Geology

MSc Cornell University - Geology

BSc  University of Buffalo

Registered Professional Geoscientist (Texas)

May 23rd, 2018 11:15 AM   through   1:00 PM
Houston, TX-77002
United States
HGS Member $ 35.00
Non-Member $ 40.00
Emeritus/Honorary Life $ 35.00
Student $ 15.00
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Contact Bob Wiener
Contact Phone (832) 978-8123
contact Email rwiener@sbcglobal.net

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